Jack May
2008-09-28 20:28:39 UTC
We are hearing the usual about how high gas prices are increasing transit
use. Of course the people making these statements are using extremely
short term data, unnormalized for anything are referenced to anything longer
term.
A more realistic analysis is at
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080715/NEWS09/807150360/1001
Popularity of mass transit questioned
Transit systems from Los Angeles to New York are benefiting from a bump up
in passengers fueled by record gasoline prices
Despite the recent spike in ridership, TheBus carries fewer passengers than
in the 1980s. Newer, faster train systems are helping boost the popularity
of public transit. However, ridership on these systems, on average, is lower
than anticipated, according to an April report by the Federal Transit
Administration.
In Honolulu, mass transit was the preferred means of getting to work for
33,929 people, or 5.4 percent of commuters, in 2006, according to the Census
Bureau. That compared with 67 percent of people who drove alone. Nationally,
mass transit was preferred by 4.8 percent of commuters, while nearly 76
percent drove to work alone
The study found that 19 recently opened federally subsidized train projects
are expected to carry, on average, 74.5 percent of their originally forecast
ridership. Two of the projects exceeded initial ridership forecasts, six
were between 60 percent and 80 percent of forecasts, and 10 had ridership
levels well below forecasts.
One of the biggest ridership disappointments occurred on the 11-mile Tren
Urbano, or urban train, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. That system, which opened
in late 2004, is expected to carry just 23.6 percent of its originally
forecast ridership. That's 86,796 fewer average weekday boardings than
expected.
At the other end of the spectrum, a Salt Lake City Medical Center spur is
expected to surpass ridership estimates by 217 percent, or 11,741 average
weekday boardings.
The FTA study also found that 10 urban rail systems built in the 1980s are
now carrying, on average, just 42.4 percent of their originally forecast
ridership.
"The energy crises of the '70s and '80s proved that there is a knee-jerk
reaction" to high gasoline prices, Prevedouros said. "But then people
eventually realize that the buses and trains are not workable for their
lifestyle so they buy a small car."
Recently built rail systems, on average, experienced 40 percent cost
overruns, according to an April report by the Federal Transit
Administration.
The agency analyzed 21 federally subsidized train projects that began
operations since 2000.
The biggest cost overrun occurred on the 11-mile Tren Urbano, or urban
train, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. That system cost $2.23 billion when it
opened in late 2004. That was more than double the $1.09 billion cost that
was predicted during the project's planning phase.
The price tag for Honolulu's planned 20-mile elevated commuter rail is
currently estimated at $3.7 billion. That figure includes a 27 percent, or
$1 billion buffer, which city officials hope will cover all cost overruns.
Honolulu taxpayers are expected to bear about $3 billion of the project's
costs via a half-percentage point excise tax surcharge that expires in 2022.
The FTA is expected to cover remaining costs.
According to the FTA report, the average time from a city's selection of a
route to the launch of service was 7.9 years.
use. Of course the people making these statements are using extremely
short term data, unnormalized for anything are referenced to anything longer
term.
A more realistic analysis is at
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080715/NEWS09/807150360/1001
Popularity of mass transit questioned
Transit systems from Los Angeles to New York are benefiting from a bump up
in passengers fueled by record gasoline prices
Despite the recent spike in ridership, TheBus carries fewer passengers than
in the 1980s. Newer, faster train systems are helping boost the popularity
of public transit. However, ridership on these systems, on average, is lower
than anticipated, according to an April report by the Federal Transit
Administration.
In Honolulu, mass transit was the preferred means of getting to work for
33,929 people, or 5.4 percent of commuters, in 2006, according to the Census
Bureau. That compared with 67 percent of people who drove alone. Nationally,
mass transit was preferred by 4.8 percent of commuters, while nearly 76
percent drove to work alone
The study found that 19 recently opened federally subsidized train projects
are expected to carry, on average, 74.5 percent of their originally forecast
ridership. Two of the projects exceeded initial ridership forecasts, six
were between 60 percent and 80 percent of forecasts, and 10 had ridership
levels well below forecasts.
One of the biggest ridership disappointments occurred on the 11-mile Tren
Urbano, or urban train, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. That system, which opened
in late 2004, is expected to carry just 23.6 percent of its originally
forecast ridership. That's 86,796 fewer average weekday boardings than
expected.
At the other end of the spectrum, a Salt Lake City Medical Center spur is
expected to surpass ridership estimates by 217 percent, or 11,741 average
weekday boardings.
The FTA study also found that 10 urban rail systems built in the 1980s are
now carrying, on average, just 42.4 percent of their originally forecast
ridership.
"The energy crises of the '70s and '80s proved that there is a knee-jerk
reaction" to high gasoline prices, Prevedouros said. "But then people
eventually realize that the buses and trains are not workable for their
lifestyle so they buy a small car."
Recently built rail systems, on average, experienced 40 percent cost
overruns, according to an April report by the Federal Transit
Administration.
The agency analyzed 21 federally subsidized train projects that began
operations since 2000.
The biggest cost overrun occurred on the 11-mile Tren Urbano, or urban
train, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. That system cost $2.23 billion when it
opened in late 2004. That was more than double the $1.09 billion cost that
was predicted during the project's planning phase.
The price tag for Honolulu's planned 20-mile elevated commuter rail is
currently estimated at $3.7 billion. That figure includes a 27 percent, or
$1 billion buffer, which city officials hope will cover all cost overruns.
Honolulu taxpayers are expected to bear about $3 billion of the project's
costs via a half-percentage point excise tax surcharge that expires in 2022.
The FTA is expected to cover remaining costs.
According to the FTA report, the average time from a city's selection of a
route to the launch of service was 7.9 years.